Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. A Newsweek map shows how they are doing in each state. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images; Bill Pugliano/Getty Images (https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-poll-map-1929590)
As the 2024 election cycle ends this Tuesday it is time to take one final look at both candidates' chances at the presidency according to the most recent polling data. But before we can look at what the polls say regarding this election, let’s look at what has happened in the months leading up to what promises to be the most impactful presidential race in years. What will voter turnout look like and who will be the winner? With both candidates making their last stops on the campaign trail, what awaits them both on Election Day and can we turn to the polls for an answer?
This presidential race has been one of the most polarizing in recent memory, both candidates' paths to their respective parties' nomination have been unusual and despite the historical implications that each candidate's election represents, their paths to that nomination have not been short of controversial either. Former President Trump’s party's nomination was never in doubt. Despite losing to President Biden in 2020 his popularity and support amongst his voter base has not waned. For President Trump this election carries historical significance, having been the first incumbent president to lose his reelection bid since President George H. W. Bush in 1992, his supporters know that this might be the last time that he might appear on the ballot as he will be 82 years old in 2028 if he were to lose this election. Former President Trump made history in May of this year as he became the first U.S. president to be found guilty on 34 counts of, “falsifying business records he faced stemming from a payment to quiet a porn star” (Snopes). Despite the conviction, however, experts say that they don’t expect the guilty verdict to impact this upcoming election. “Eighty percent of Trump's supporters say they'd stick with him even if he's convicted of a felony in this case, with only 4% saying they’d withdraw their support” (ABC News).
Vice President Kamala Harris; former President Donald Trump. Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images; Jabin Botsford for the Washington Post (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/harris-trump-michigan-wisconsin-rally-election-live-updates-rcna177531?os=fno_journeystrue&ref=app)
Vice President Kamala Harris became the nominee in July after President Biden withdrew from the race citing concerns about his age and health if he were re-elected. Following his decision he immediately endorsed Harris as the nominee. The following month at the Democratic National Convention she accepted the nomination for president. Harris’s nomination is historic as well because, “Harris is the first Black and South Asian woman to lead a major party ticket” (ABC News), and if she were to win, she would become the first female vice president and the first U.S. female president.
The most recent polls show Harris barely edging out a narrow victory over Trump. In a recent poll from Iowa pollster, Ann Selzer sees Kamala Harris with a three-point lead over Trump, 47 percent versus 44 percent, a state that Trump won in the last two elections by an 8 and 9-point margin. The same poll also found a stark divide in gender, “The poll also found women voters backing Harris by 56 percent to Trump's 36 percent. Male voters showed a similar but inverse pattern, favoring Trump by 52 percent to Harris' 38 percent” (Newsweek). However, polls also show Trump “leading Vice President Kamala Harris in six out of seven crucial swing states” (NewsX), albeit with a small margin in some. A lot is on the line in this upcoming election as this race is shaping up to be one of the most contested, and with polls showing no clear winner, all eyes will be on the outcome of Tuesday’s results.
People wait to cast their votes at Hudson Yards, in New York City, last Saturday. As of Monday, 2.8 million people had voted in New York state. In 2020, 8.6 million ballots were cast there.Kena Betancur / AFP - Getty Images (https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/2024-early-vote-data-map-rcna177666)
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